EZY will not have just gone into SEN to try it out or because they will "make sufficient money to make it worthwhile".
Opening a new base takes a lot of work, time and expense. The airline needs to be certain in itself that it is going to be profitable, generate high share holder returns and has high potential for future growth over a long-term period. EZY obviously saw SEN as that airport, but only at the expense of others.
EZY made an investment into a 3 aircraft base at SEN in 2011, pulling 3 aircraft from STN as the "catchment overlaps" but being guided by Ms McCall that it wouldn't equate to capacity cuts at STN as part of their strategy of deeping the frequency of existing routes. EZY have now pulled 6 aircraft from STN since 2011.
At the time, STN was still very much in a rough position with the BAA with an uncertain future, but I'm sure EZY are intelligent and sophisticated enough to see that that wasn't going to last forever.
I don't wish to make this all about STN and SEN though albeit this is probably the most affected area. LPL and MAN?
FR is a good comparison here. At LPL, since 2011, EZY has dropped from 10 to 7 aircraft and FR from 8 to 5.
At MAN, EZY has gone from I think 6 to 8 aircraft and FR has gone from having no aircraft up to 7 (rumoured at 8) based units in the same period. With also many aicraft flying in from other bases, MAN is now FR's 2nd largest UK airport after STN.
The combined total of LPL and MAN for EZY was 16 aircraft in 2011 and is 15 for 2015. For FR it was 8 in 2011 and 12 for 2015. Interesting to note that despite EZY basing 1 more aircraft than FR at MAN, FR operates more flights. Either way, significant growth by FR has taken place here.
The same goes in Scotland for 2015. FR will cut back significantly in PIK due to the new GLA base, but the combined total of GLA and PIK in 2015 will be higher than the PIK operation in 2014. To add to that, FR will also be growing in EDI too. So the cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh and Scotland as a whole will see noticeable growth in 2015.
EMA has seen quite a lot of FR growth over quite a long period of time, but whilst BHX is pretty stagnant, it isn't seeing any major cuts. Similar thing now happening with the significant FR growth at STN, but LTN is still going as strong as always.
Both FR and EZY have had issues with fleet over the last few years, so despite the reallocation of aircraft to yield higher returns for shareholders, why is EZY failing to deliver real, "organic" growth, which FR seems to be pulling off quite nicely??