If I was running CASA, I would be extremely worried about its future because a vicious circle is forming very quickly.
Administration is not cheap. If administrative costs keep increasing to the point where market participants start leaving the industry, a vicious circle forms where increasing administrative charges have to be born by a decreasing number of participants.
The major airlines can not be milked - they have political clout and can tell CASA where to stick it and in any case CASA don't have the skills, experience, courage and capabilities in depth to make any meaningful regulatory impact on Qantas and its competitors, let alone value add. That is why Terry Farquesons A380 endorsement is a joke - Qantas will not permit CASA to have anything to do with its operations apart from a little window dressing for appearances sake, and that by the way from a Qantas pilot mate.
That leaves the Third tier airlines, charter, GA and recreational sectors to pick up CASA's tab. My impression is that those people are fast running out of money to pay for "exemptions", "permissions" and "acceptances", the cost of which are now apparently escalating to stratospheric heights.
At some point the last straw breaks the camels back and CASA will be overtaken by events. Let me tell you where I see the trends going and why I would be concerned if I was CASA:
- Rapid technological change, particularly in Avionics, is going to put very major pressure on CASA to approve/accept. call it what you will, a bewildering array of new technologies and do it fast or risk becoming a laughing stock as well as courting widespread disobedience and flaunting of its rules. The whole electronic flight bag / iPad issue is a case in point.
For example, I can already access the marine AIS (automatic identification system) via an App. I can even paint myself on radar screens as displacing 20,000 tons if i want to.
https://itunes.apple.com/au/app/boat...494877039?mt=8
I wonder how fast the aviation equivalent "plane beacon" App will arrive and how that will totally disrupt ADS-B?
- Civil disobedience, although I have no knowledge of it, I would expect that at some point, a proportion of aircraft operators are going to start to decide to operate illegally making the judgement that the cost and likelihood of getting caught is smaller than the cost and complexity of compliance. If that proportion is significant it will swamp whatever oversight mechanism CASA thinks it has.
- A general economic downturn will also contribute to this vicious circle. I do not believe the Federal Treasurer is going to allow CASA to continue wasting money.
By my way of thinking, it is not a good idea for CASA management to assume that the Government will continue to put up with their antics. A good place to start would be the Senate Estimates Committee asking very pointed questions about the need for the Acting DAS to get an A380 endorsement.