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Old 27th Sep 2014, 21:21
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G0ULI
 
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AF447 an Analogy for Non Pilots

Consider the driver of a modern, very up market car fitted with all the latest driver aids and stability assistance, cruising along an Autobahn at high speed in a rainstorm. The car has differential braking to all four wheels, distributed drive to all four wheels, rear wheel steering assistance and an electronic front wheel steering system.

The car turns into a bend, the inside wheels are braked slightly, the rear wheels turn in and the driver's steering input is harsh enough to cause the front wheels to start to lose traction, so the engine power is reduced and the sensitivity of the steering input reduced. The car continues around the bend, apparently completely in command of the driver, who notices nothing out of the ordinary.

[AF447 flying in moderate turbulence on autopilot]

On a straight stretch of motorway the car ploughs through some deep puddles and again the electronic stability controls activate to make this a non event for the driver. However due to a faulty seal or a design fault, some water enters the electronics compartment housing the stability systems.

[AF447 hits heavy icing conditions, ice starts to block pitot tubes]

At the next bend in the road, the driver turns the steering wheel and water sloshes up onto part of the circuit boards causing a fault condition. All stability controls are disabled and the car reverts to direct response to the accelerator, brakes and steering.

A light comes on the dashboard to warn the driver as the car starts to veer off course to the side of the road. The driver jerks the steering wheel and floors the accelerator to try and kick the back end of the car around. Perhaps it swings too far, so opposite lock is applied. That doesn't work, so the driver then brakes in a panic, causing all four wheels to lock, whereupon the car aquaplanes and fishtails or spins down the road into a crash barrier.

Drivers involved in aquaplaning and black ice accidents nearly all report feeling the vehicle accelerating as the skid begins. This is actually caused by a feeling of acceleration as braking force is lost, rather than any real increase in speed.

[AF447 Controls revert to alternate law (effectively direct input) and fail to protect the aircraft from stalling. The control column is held back to maintain altitude and reduce speed as the pilot flying seems convinced the aircraft is overspeeding. This feeling may have been induced by the extra noise of ice crystals hitting the aircraft giving a false audible impression that the aircraft was flying faster than normal.]

Now a highly experienced driver would have known to feather the throttle to keep the wheels spinning and to gently steer around the bend and maintain control of the vehicle until they could stop or sort out the situation. They might go wide around the bend, but they would probably avoid an accident.

High level automation in cars makes mediocre drivers feel like world class racing drivers by covering for their limitations. When all that assistance is suddenly removed, accidents happen.

In the case of AF447 a situation occured where a pilot with relatively limited experience was suddenly required to respond to a situation and gross control inputs were made in the same way that an inexperienced driver might respond to a sudden skid. Under normal circumstances, the aircraft would have modified the control inputs to maintain safe flight. Under alternate law, these safety measures were severely degraded or absent.

There were many other contributory factors, but this might help explain the initial actions of the pilot flying. It isn't necessary to seek out some complicated psychological reason for these responses. They are just normal human reactions to a sudden shock.

Unfortunately, once control is lost of either a car or an aircraft, it is very difficult for anyone other than the most experienced driver or pilot to retrieve the situation and only then by intervention at the earliest possible stage.

This might make it easier for non pilots to understand how the initial situation arose. The initial panic and unexpected responses from the aircraft also served to disorientate other crew members to the extent that identification of the problem and recovery was delayed until it was too late.

It is a situation that could happen to any one of us, particularly in a modern car.
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