Mathematician Wanted
Just read that the probabilty of a collision event per flight hour between GR4 and another military aircraft is 4.30E-07 (1 in 2,325,581). The statement goes on to say that assuming 212 hrs of flying per crew per annum, this calculates as a per annum risk of collision with military aircraft of 1 in 10969.
But there are 94 crews, each flying 212 hrs, which gives a annual flying rate for the fleet of around 20,000 hrs. Isn't this the figure that should used, which gives a annual risk of collision for the fleet as 1 in 116?
DV