Cumulative historical contribution
The
World Resources Institute estimates that Australia was responsible for 1.1% of all CO2 emissions between 1850 and 2002.
[2] Australia has a correspondingly tiny share of the global population, roughly a third of a percent as of 2013.
Projected contribution
According to the no-mitigation scenario in the
Garnaut Climate Change Review, Australia's share of world emissions, at 1.5% in 2005, declines to 1.1% by 2030, and to 1% by 2100.
[3]
Confounding factors
The
import and
export of goods confounds equitable measurements of emissions, particularly in the context of endeavouring to reach a global agreement on emissions reduction based on
contraction and convergence. Australian emissions are monitored on a
production rather than a
consumption basis. This means that the emissions from the manufacture of goods imported into and consumed within Australia, for example many motor vehicles, are allocated to the country of manufacture. Similarly, Australia produces
aluminium for export which requires substantial amounts of
electricity which is produced by
greenhouse gas emitting
coal-fired power stations. While the aluminium is mainly consumed overseas, the emissions of its production are allocated to Australia. Geoff Carmody argues we need a consumption based
emissions trading scheme.
[4]
Indirect contribution
Australia is a major exporter of
coal, particularly from
Newcastle, Australia.
[5] The coal is produced from
coal mining in Australia. The greenhouse gas emissions in other countries from the proposed increase in coal export capacity of the major Australian ports will greatly outweigh the proposed reductions in Australia's emissions from the introduction of the
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. While Australia imposes safeguards on the export of
uranium, it does not impose any requirements for
carbon capture and storage of greenhouse gas emissions of exported coal. Australia thus contributes substantially more to the
global warming which, according to the
Garnaut Climate Change Review will lead to the destruction of the
Great Barrier Reef,
Kakadu and the
Murray Darling Basin as they have existed during recorded history to date.
Australia is also a major exporter of
liquefied natural gas, another
fossil fuel.
[6]