I was told yesterday about a young chap who left to BA about five years ago when he must have been mid to late 20's. On the 380 fleet now he has worked out his numbers mean he is unlikely to ever get a command on that fleet. That surprised me a bit
Sounds like a distortion. If he joined in mid to late 20s, he'd have over 35 years in the company and would easily secure a long haul command.
I have also heard speculation this week that the outcome of the short haul review might make shorthaul less agreeable. As a consequence there may be surge in shorthaul Captains bidding to transfer to longhaul RHS. Thus drastically increasing the number of years a new joiner might expect to be 'stuck' on shorthaul.
Its certainly a topic of debate amongst the FO community out here in the swamp.
The line of thought may be that BA SH days are numbered? BA currently has ~3600 pilots, of which approx 1500 are SH. Let's say the scenario happens where Vueling grows as per the "fear" and takes over BA SH @ LHR/LGW. Not overnight, but just gradually - much as MF do for CC. The new BA LH pilot workforce of ~2000 will comprise the absorbed SH pilots, all in the line for Command ahead of recent joiners.
I can only stress the above is one scenario, based on nothing in particular - better (or worse) scenarios are possible. But a timely BA command, and particularly a BA LH command rely on SH remaining on the BA pilot list...