Originally Posted by
chimbu warrior
With the Captain having flown 205 hours in 60 days, it is not unreasonable to expect some level of fatigue, particularly when conducting short-haul operations in the tropics.
While this may be true, I don't think you can write off to fatigue a fundamental decision to not do the normal thing: go around at MDA when you do not have the field in sight. There is a bit more than fatigue going into this basic failure to apply procedures to a situation.
Lion Air appears to have emerged from this without any change to their operating policies or practices (the Chief Pilot memo is surely a joke). This is not their first hull loss, and in view of the foregoing, is unlikely to be their last.
I called my bookie in Las Vegas. He was not willing to cover my bet (at any odds) that Lionair will have another accident, and probably soon.
He knows smart money when he see it. Bookies make their money on "dumb money" ... and I wonder at Lionair (Corporate) understanding smart risk assessment versus dumb risk assessment.
Your points on there being a bit more to this than pilot error are reasonably put.