PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Bye Bye Qantas Hello Jetstar
View Single Post
Old 26th Aug 2014, 10:08
  #91 (permalink)  
virginexcess
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: at home
Posts: 158
Likes: 0
Received 15 Likes on 1 Post
G'day Trev

Not an expert on the Tiger thing, but my guess is that it was a deal done as part of Singapore jumping on the Virgin share register. I suspect that in return for taking that steaming dog turd off their hands, JB managed to get a reasonable commitment to provide support in the form of debt or cash if needed to ensure that Alan was left in no doubt as to the depth of capital available to Virgin should it be needed.

I think it is also probably a hedge against J*. I believe that we are still a fair way away from seeing what the final model will be for the two majors. Given the way that carriers use differential pricing to fill aircraft, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the pure LCC's will get squeezed out of the market in Australia, as it is possible for a major carrier to price accordingly to attract all but the bottom feeders in regard to price.

That will require Qantas to fix its cost base though, and that's by no means a given, although I think the domestic business is in much better shape than International.

If there is room for the LCC's after Qantas and Virgin sort their product out then Tiger will fill that role for Virgin and effectively become Virgins J*.

I think the big question is still whether Qantas will persist with two brands or gradually bring it back under one in the long term. In my view the two brands are now becoming a bit silly, whereby J* is seen as an inferior product. They need to get rid of the cheap and nasty bit, bring it back under the Qantas brand, but still price similar to J*. That would be a formidable product.

With regard to Tiger, I understand the strategy was to expand, but I suspect that JB has bitten off a bit more than he can chew with all the acquisitions. VARA seem to be a problem from a regulatory point of view. If memory serves, there was much fanfare around the growth plans for VARA when Virgin bought it, but precious little seems to have happened. Might have something to do with a few dodgy approaches and a bent aircraft in Albury methinks.

I suspect Tiger will tick away in the background ready to respond to any attack at that end of the market from a Qantas related product.
virginexcess is offline