Fast forward two years
That's a bit optimistic......
I would have said within 6 months. On January 1st, the Taliban will have complete control of the country and everything Bush set out to stop in 2001 will continue as if nothing had happened. The 'small force' the US intends to leave until 2016 will not be enough, they will be heavily out-numbered and they will be heavily out-gunned, and the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police will be powerless to do anything. At best, the 'civil war' will get bigger with the Taliban inevitably winning it. The dam in Kajaki will be destroyed and that will be their first milestone, they have wanted to destroy that thing since the beginning.
We can not win this war on terror with the current rules of engagement. How can anybody expect the armed forces to win against an enemy that can manipulate the rules? As I understand, if they stop firing, you can't shoot them. If they put their weapons down, aircraft can't engage them. It's an unwinnable war.