5F6B,
Yes, you're right about where the current batch of GR4 pilots will go, but the problem is the guys that are already in those roles/posts end up with no flying jobs to go back to. Plus, Typhoon will need to be sending some guys to be QFIs too, in order to have Typhoon QFIs further down the line. We've been through all this before when I was at Group. Trying to maintain critical mass for FJ aircrew then leads to shorter flying tours so that you end up with second and third tourists - the seed corn for QWI and Flt cdrs - with too few hours to become supervisors.
Manning and Air Cmd need to start working this and the training pipeline PDQ or it will get ugly.