I trained at PAT and got first time passes on both skills tests. CPL in minimum hours, IR in something like 30mins over the minimum which was just how the flights went. I would (and have) recommend them to anyone who asks.
Just a note on odds - if passing first time were solely random, your odds would be correct, however it is a skills test not a luck test and while on occasion people do partial due to bad luck or a momentary lapse, after a few beers most would admit it was because they made a genuine boob.
In my experience (which includes those of other students at the time), if you are ready in minimum hours you will sit the skills test. I fly with plenty of colleagues who didn't do everything in minimum hours (I didn't do my PPL in min hours for example) but so,show still seem to be capable professional pilots all the same.
Minimum hours is, however, a financial consideration and you are foolish if you don't budget for a few hours extra across both courses.