Hmmm … it must be nice to have such an infallible “crystal ball” at your elbow. Personally, I have no idea about what the next 20 – 50 years of aviation is going to see. Could it include “fully automated airplanes” ?? … sure … it could but if that does happen I would suspect that the cost of an airline ticket might preclude all but the wealthiest of persons from traveling by air.
The history of commercial aviation to date is one of increasing automation, reduced cost and reduced real incomes for pilots. I don't think these things are unconnected and see no reason why further levels of automation would produce an opposite trend.
The costs of processing power and wireless communication are only going in one direction. And computers don't need rest breaks, hotel rooms, sick leave or holidays, don't sue for wrongful dismissal, don't ask for pay rises and are already responsible for fewer mistakes than humans. They would probably also mean lower insurance premiums.
IBM's Watson is already better at medical diagnosis than the average doctor — and that's not based on it being given a data set; it speaks to patients. Is flying a plane vastly more difficult than medical diagnosis? And yes, I realise the challenges are different, but they're still just computational.
Indeed, the obstacles probably aren't even technological at this point. The obstacles are pilots and passengers, neither of whom are massively keen on the idea. But it will be passengers who make the final decision — and they will vote with their wallets, as they've done throughout the history of aviation.
And if we don't do it, the Chinese will — because they won't care about firing pilots and their passengers only care about price, not least because their mistrust of humans is ingrained by decades of experience at the hands of incompetent and corrupt institutions.
Indeed, the industry's growth is not going to be in Europe or the US — it's all in poor countries where passenger growth can be in the double digits. Where will all the pilots come from? Will they be adequately trained? Would you be so sceptical of automation if you lived in Bangladesh or Uganda?