Here are some factors to consider for the more well informed:
1. How do you use the 'surge fleet' for AAR? The surge fleet are not on the Mil Register and currently EASA and CAA regs do not allow for AAR. SO how will they conduct this flying without the buy in from the MoD? If it were that easy Omega would be there already.
2. AAR Clearances. Currently Voyager is only cleared against the RAF fleet, however, during the trials other types were used and obviously the current MRTT operators also have their own clearances that may be read across. As far as I am aware, there are only 2 types of basket out there, and only one operator is persisting with the Variable drag drogue.
3. Whilst 3PR is a key part of the deal for AirTanker, I don't believe it is the case for the MoD as they don't see that part of the cash flow.
4. The boom debate goes on, although the decision should have been made 10 years ago, UK requirement or not. How have we coped for the last 3 decades without a boom? Simple, we haven't needed one. If the NATO and european AAR shortfall is the goal for AirTanker then they need to realise that the major requirement in this space is for ARBS tankers and therefore they should pay for the conversions as they have the most to gain!