Max,
There are lots of gray areas surrounding this subject. I would not minimize the potential impact of a well organized and executed "Contract Compliance Campaign." This company is scrambling already to fill seats. The rosters couldn't possibly get worse, so it would not take much to get the wheels coming off completely. The training system is at max capacity, thank you trainers, but relief is nowhere in sight.
Wrt terminating contracts, do you think this airline would run with 50 fewer pilots than it has today. I don't. There is no fat in the system. The offers to defer leave prove that. You wait, leave will soon be taken away non-voluntarily.
Sickness rates are at record highs and going higher! Further efforts to gain producivity without resolution on compensation will send them higher yet. In the insurance world, I think they call where we are right now as "the death spiral." So many are sick and getting sicker that there are not enough healthy folks to pay the bills and keep the lights on.