So it looks like Plan B is for some form of anarchical insurrection by the IOS! The Senate Inquiry was held that long ago that babies born at the time are now entering kindergarten. All through the thread people have hung out for the next thing that will bring immediate and lasting change to the way aviation is administered and regulated in this country. The Senate inquiry, the next Senate inquiry into Pel Air, the change of government, the Truss report, the AFP investigation, the Privileges committee etc etc. Each time there has been a resounding chorus of “Its Time”.
I will give the credit to Creampuff but he forecast many years ago that none of the above was going to move the industry an inch closer to genuine reform mainly because both main political parties did not see aviation reform as being a vote catcher or game changer. They liked their Public Servants to run interference for them and supported them by extensions to their appointments when the time came. You might cite McCormick as an example of a scalp but he was never a professional bureaucrat so he was always going to be the fall guy. At least he had once upon a time slipped the surly bonds but what why would some aviation experience save him from getting the boot from an aviation portfolio? Dolan has zero aviation experience and failed badly at Senate estimates and inquiries yet continues to be the Commissioner at the ATSB.
What is the common denominator in all this? One word- Complacency. There have been no Cat 1 accidents in this country so from the politicians and publics point of view all must be well. CASA convince the government of the day, whether red or blue, that if radical change is made then an accident will be the inevitable result. That is why the Senate reports get ignored, that is why the government will conduct an extensive review and ultimately not change anything.
So what will change things? To make the decision makers non-complacent, Simples! One way is through the sheer hard yards of lobbying by various professional and industry organisations. They are the bodies that have the access, the credibility and the data that can influence the decision makers. Organisations like the RAA, AIPA the Ag association etc. These are the people that get treated seriously but it takes an awful lot of effort and an awful lot of time. Think of it in similar terms to the technological advances in aviation between the two World Wars.
So what is the equivalent of WW2?
That is the terrible reality of how aviation advances- fatal accidents. Not just any accidents as Lockhart River proved but a shiny jet with a recognisable brand name on the tail fin. Close calls like Mildura are obviously not enough to get rid of political and public complacency. I doubt that the recent near hit at MCY will be enough. Only pictures on the TV of the scale of MH17 will do it.
It is certainly a cynical viewpoint but cynicism comes through having seen it all before and not witnessing change. As an example the current hours requirements in the U.S. only come about because of the Colgan crash. Fulltime tracking of passenger aircraft will only occur due to MH370. The risk assessment of air routes over war zones will have more conservative assumptions included because of MH17. The importance of pilots being able to actually manipulate an aircraft in an emergency is only given prominence because of AF447 and Asiana 214. All these issues were present for many years before an accident occurred and there were plenty of warnings.
Complacency, get rid of that and you get rid of the people running CASA and the ATSB. I know how it won’t be achieved but that just gets people upset because they think they have found the Holy Gourd through a keyboard.
