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Old 10th May 2003 | 08:40
  #4 (permalink)  
Notso Fantastic
 
Joined: Aug 2000
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From: UK
Reality will sink in soon and things will get back to normal once we establish we have a very limited area infection:
The number of new infections in Hong Kong is very small. And it is smaller still if you account for cross-family infections and infections of health workers. Medical experts calculate that the number of unlisted carriers still out there on the streets must also be tiny. In theory, it could be a single individual.Any child with Hong Kong Form 5 level mathematics can tell you that for seven million people to wear masks on the street to protect themselves from a disease possibly carried by even a few dozen people is ludicrous. Yes, it is wise to wear a mask when you are working in a Sars hospital. But outside? Experts say no. Compare the statistics for other diseases. There are 200,000 cases of yellow fever a year, killing 30,000 people, with death rates in some areas hitting 50% of adult victims and 70% of child victims. The disease strikes mainly in South America and Africa. The W.H.O. does not advise people to avoid South America and Africa.

In the United States, deadly strains of influenza are sweeping through cities, killing 36,000 people a year. The W.H.O. does not advise people to avoid visiting the US. The number of people carrying Hepatitis C in China is counted in the millions. But that fact did not trigger a travel advisory against China. Bacterial meningitis hits 1.2 million people a year, killing 173,000 people, with most victims being in Africa. The W.H.O. does not advise people not to visit Africa. When you compare the 173,000 deaths of bacterial meningitis with the five Sars deaths in Vietnam, you start to realize that we need to get things in proportion. If there are seven Sars carriers left walking the streets of Hong Kong, there is literally a one-in-a-million chance of meeting one. Do the math.
Attrib: Nury Vittachi, Hong Kong 5th May 2003, (for the benefit of non-Hong-Kongers, Nury is a well known journalist who has worked for the South China Morning Post, The Far Eastern Economic Review and Asian Finance, plus other publications.

In short, SARS is incredibly low down on the scale of risks. There are some wonderful, never to be repeatd opportunities, for cheap vacations in Hong Kong. Wear glasses if you are really worried-chief transmission route now expeted to be rubbing eyes from contact with people you are literally not going to run into. You are more at risk walking up Streatham High Street from God knows what!

Things will come back to normal very quickly. It's Ebola and Lassa Fever we want to worry about. When that get out we will have the plague of the middle ages back!
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