A lot of guys say they are planning on leaving and wont when they say they will.
2.5 % seems to be the number being used by HR, they also say that number really has not changed , but 2.5 % of 3700 is diffent than 2.5 % of 1000.They also said they are seeing a slight increase in guys returning to the US but not the number that some pilots are quoting.
3700 pilots at the present and not enough AC on the plan 280 AC(2021) to need @ 6500, 7 years of 2.5 to 3 % leaving or retiring. Unless attrition increares it has to be 8 + years because they just dont know.
Dont come if looking for an early upgrade