Ulric:
Your analysis is fine if one supposes that the tip of Indonesia is in fact,
the starting point of the southern track. This is far from clear from the known
data.
Ulric, I am
not trying to build the ATSB's
current model (and best estimate). I am trying to show you what the ATSB model (and best estimate) would have looked like
in the March 17-27 era. Their report explicitly states (on p.5) that their working model at that time assumed a turn at the NW tip of Indonesia.
The reason replicating those (now obsolete) assumptions is important is because I go on to prove that the model update they (claim to have) made on March 27 could not
possibly have supported the DECISION they made on March 28 - which was to move the search dramatically NE.