The truth is no one can say with any certainty. It depends on so many factors. I do however feel that the 3 to 4 year commands are a thing of the past in Emirates. A realistic timeframe, in my opinion, would be at about 6-8 years. I think we will see some movement within the airline as older guys decide to retire or move on and this will generate some opertunity. The bottom line is that if your motivation for coming to EK is purely for a quick command you may end up being dissapointed.