S-D
To assess risk in the way you suggest i.e. to relate it to an individual's exposure just ain't going to happen, commendable as it might be as a yard-stick of risk.
I'm long out of the RAF and my experience was in the 1980's.....back then the RAF lost close to 15 aircrew KILLED every year, that doesn't include those that were able to eject and survive, some of whom were badly injured in the process......
Losses were sometimes down to pure aircrew handling/operating error but many were partly down to poor risk management, others were due to structural failures (Buccaneer x2 and F4 x1) and the two biggest "gotcha's" were mid-air collisions and target fixation on a range or when doing a SAP.
The Jag Squadrons had it bad for a number of years particularly and reasons for this were many. Single seat, low level, marginal power excess (even on 2
), small wing, poor nav kit (NAVWASS) and a demanding role, particularly for the recce boys who also had a massive recce pod to lug around. Count the sqns..... 1 at Laarbruch, 4 at Bruggen, 2 at Coltishall and a big OCU at Lossie - say 8 squadrons with 200 pilots regularly flying them at any one time. Big if here, if you were on a three year tour (so were one of those 200) and 5 crew were killed every year from the Jag world you'd be looking at 7.5% as being the probability that you might be DEAD in 3 years.......similar stats could be found in the Harrier world too I suspect.
I could put names and faces to a number of those killed in accident then
and I am only glad that in spite of this accident, they are far less frequent than they were 30 years ago. Other similar accidents that spring to mind are the Harrier mid-airs over Wisbeach and Otterburn, a Jag/Tornado mid-air and a Jag/Jag mid-air in Cumbria, a Jag/Cessna in Wales, a Tornado/JetRanger mid-air in Lancashire and various range-related accidents from Holbeach/Wainfleet/Tain, Capa Frasca and Nordhorn.
None of this excuses the behaviour of the MAA/MAIB/MoD but I think sometime it is best to have a certain amount of perspective. Flight safety was far from perfect 35 years ago. Did accident rates deter me from wanting to be a pilot or from flying a particular aircraft type? Answer NO. Would today's flight safety regime deter me from flying in the RAF today? Again NO. Could the RAF/MoD do more to improve flight safety? Answer... an emphatic YES.
But just as many aircrew in WW2 had to make do with going to war in obsolescent equipment with aircraft such as Fairy Battles and Bristol Blenheims, even biplanes such as the Gloster Gladiator years after they had been superceeded by aircraft such as the Mosquito and Spitfire it is not reasonable for every platform in service to be the latest model.
The chance of a fatal accident if flying SLF in a civil airliner is something like 1.6 x 10( - power 6). It will never get anywhere near that in military aircraft ops (even in peacetime) and if the goal is to do so the only way that to be achieved would be to ground all mil a/c now.
The lesson here is surely, learn from this accident, try an mitigate future risks (within reason), remember with affection those killed, and carry on with what aircrew do best - FLY.
MB