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Old 28th Jun 2014, 22:31
  #11208 (permalink)  
Hyperveloce
 
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Here are the results of a MonteCarlo simulation, for constant speed/altitude final leg (from 18:29) like for the analysis B of the report ""Definition of the underwater search areas" available at the bottom of the web page:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370/mh370-defi ... areas.aspx

The simulated ground speeds range from 320 to 520 kts and cover the final ping ring from -21 to -39° in latitude (see last link).

Only the top two deciles in the fitting criteria ( max_t|BFOsim(t)-BFOobs(t)|+µ * max_t|BTOsim(t)-BTOobs(t)| ) are displayed.

The more red the fitter: the hottest spot ranges from 28° to 32° south along the last ping ring (best run at 31°):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3s...it?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3s...it?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3s...it?usp=sharing
It seems very close to the results of the analysis B of the report (see page 27) when the fitting criteria (on the BFO and the BTO/angles of elev.) uses only the last 5 hanshakes (handshakes after 18:29). When the criteria use all the handshakes, the hottest spot shifts 1.5° to the south.
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