Hyperveloce
I am curious about the 1st legs (till 18:29) hypothetized by the independant MH370 study group (see Duncan Steel website) since their 470 kts south trajectory seems to avoid the Indonesian airspace and I assume that their trajectory is compatible with the BTO/BFO logged data.
That group will have to speak about the BTO/BFO comparison themselves. It doesn’t match the model I have proposed (it’s miles off the BFO model), otherwise it would have appeared in my paper as a potential solution consistent with the data.
The radar tracks
Someone asked a while ago about the consistency of what I have been proposing with the radar track along the Straits of Malacca. I have investigated this by fixing the latitude of the 18:29UT ping to be North of Sumatra. The two speeds in the track model set are then the speed of the second leg from 18:29UT to 19:41UT, and then the speed of the subsequent legs (all the same). Again, I compare the BFO predictions of each track with the data. Statistically, the solutions are the same as those in my original paper. However, in this case the required speeds of the second leg to be consistent with the data are an output of the modelling. I have plotted the speed on the second leg against latitude of the final point at 00:19UT, i.e. position along the 00:19UT ping ring, for the statistically acceptable solutions. The result is shown in the graph below.
final_search_areas_zps2591eb0d.jpg Photo by RichardC10 | Photobucket
This is a complex graph, so some notes:
a. All of this is constrained by the need to be consistent with the radar data.
b. The blue points are solutions to the 3 ping fit (20:41 to 22:41UT) in the paper. With the reported search areas shift to the South these are less important.
c. the brown points are solutions to the 4 ping fit (19:41 to 22:41UT). This corresponds to section 7.7 of my report.
d. the green points are solutions to the both the 3 and 4 ping fits.
e. the red line I have drawn in shows the minimum 2nd leg speed to get to a particular latitude. The aim is to show just how fast the aircraft has to travel on the 18:29UT to 19:41UT leg to get it South enough for the rest of the BFO values to match.
f. the aircraft has to be at the speed for the later legs by 19:41UT, that is whatever the average speed between 18:29 and 19:41UT, the aircraft has to have slowed to the later leg speed by 19:41UT. If it is still at the higher speed the fit at 19:41UT is very bad.
g. If the aircraft flew North of Sumatra, the minimum 2nd leg speed to get to the Northern red-zone search area at ~21degS is 410kt, so lower than the speed at loss of contact, so not a constraint.
h. However, to get to the Southern areas now being mooted (say 28S), the minimum
average speed on the 2nd leg is 540kt (given that the speed of the aircraft has to be at much lower value of <330kt by 19:41UT, the maximum has to be greater than 540kt). The minimum average speed on the 2nd leg to get to the Southern edge of the ICAO green zone is 500kt. This speed may be a limit set by the aircraft analysis
If the constraint to be consistent with the radar data is dropped, the course can be much more Southerly, as indicated in the maps of the original report. Using the 4-point BFO fit, the goodness of fit of the possible tracks is shown in the graph below. A speed limit of 500kt on the first leg is used (the figure used above). The 90% confidence limits give a range of 23S and 30S along the 00:19UT ping arc for the final destination.
confidence_limits_zpsa555d4ad.jpg Photo by RichardC10 | Photobucket
So here is a risky prediction, based on a model I have not been able to validate. So what can go wrong?
1. The Southern edge of the ICAO green-zone was set by a maximum 2nd leg speed of 500kt, with the possible tracks set by the need to be consistent with the radar data.
2. when the new search area is declared, it will be between 23S and 30S, which corresponds to the 4-point ping fit.
To be clear, this comes with a big health warning as I think I am making the model too complex for the available data.
Also, again to be clear, the model proposed in the paper is a hypothesis of what the Inmarsat analysis process might have been. Apart from the published MH370 data log, I have no other data to validate the model, so cannot claim it is verified and hence that any prediction from it is correct.