RichardC
Good work, and a great write-up... (I will have to finish reading it later.)
Comparing notes between different analysis might help each...
The rumor is that the Pilot signal is coming form an Earth station in Burum, Netherlands. (minor difference from Fucino, Italy)
The work Victor Iannello, Mike Exner, Duncan Steel, Don Thompson and others (as referenced:
http://tmfassociates.com/MH370Jun8.pdf ) Is narrowing in on the rumor that the EAFC was incorrectly programmed as to the Lat/Lon location for the Perth ground station. A positive (Northern Lat) for Perth results in roughly 30% reduction in the sat-Perth correction.
In addition to the satellite data, there was reportedly (rumor 3?) an extensive analysis of the fuel range of the flight. The ACARS report at 17:07UT would have provided a fairly accurate fuel weight at that time. (Initial Fuel loads on the ground has been mentioned in the press, and some people done some analysis with those numbers. But, the later ACARS numbers would be more accurate.) The work presumed some truth to early reports that the plane flew erratic or evasive maneuvers West across the peninsula and NorthWest over the Straits {between the turnaround (just after 17:22UT) and the last radar blip (18:22UT)}. The working assumption was that fueld consumption was much higher than would have occurred for level cruise at FL350. {multiple extreme changes in altitude (>45000ft to <5000ft), terrain hugging, and avoiding Thai & Indonesian airspace...}
There was also a belief that the last radar blips established the speed and altitude of the plane at 8:22UT = low (2900ft) and slow (?)... But, my review of the radar blips indicates a much higher speed (~ 500kts ground speed) and altitude (over 35000ft to have been visible on radar at that distance). -- I believe (aka my opinion...) that the fuel exhaustion analysis based on the (overestimated) early flight fuel consumption and the (underestimated) low altitude & speed - pushed the most likely search zone far to the North and East along the 00:11UT arc ('ping ring').
Recent statements from Inmarsat and other participants in the official search effort seem to support the idea that the new search area will be along the same arc, but further South and West, closer to the initial Inmarsat projected paths.
One previously released image "Example Southern Tracks" shows a red line for a "Constant 400 Knts Track", and a yellow line for a "Constant 450 knts Track". With a little adjustment for other improvements they may have made to their BTO+BFO models (and possibly the addition of an even faster track) I am expecting the search area to be more in line with these early proposed tracks.
one person's 'rumor' may another persons 'fact'...