Originally Posted by
Gysbreght
Hi Hyperveloce,
It is not entirely clear to me how your Monte Carlo simulation is set up. Some explanation would be helpful, in particular how you derive the AES frequency bias of 160 Hz and the GES partial compensation.
the varied trajectories are randomized versions of a mother/reference trajectory.
A trajectory is a timed sequence of speed, bearing, altitude changes (this timed sequence is the genom/DNA of a trajectory).
The gaussian randomization includes the timing itself of these speed, bearing and altitude changes.
I use the sigma values: 15 kts, 3°, 0 ft (no altitude randomization).
1000 flights are first generated through this randomization of a reference trajectory which in turn generate an offspring with a probability which is a function of their fit to both the measured angles of elev. & BFO values. After 5000 simulated flights, the randomization (mutations) goes hand in hand with crossing over the DNA of the best fit trajectories.
This process is independant from the BFO model I previously mentionned.
The frequency bias (a constant frequency specific to the AES) and the GES partial frequency compensation are estimated via a linear regression between the time series BFO - (D1+D1_AES+D2) and D3 (since there seems to be a linear relationship between the two). This suggests that the partial compensation implemented by the Perth GES can be a constant fraction of D3 (D3_GES ~ - 0.7 D3).
Originally Posted by
Gysbreght
Can you do a similar analysis for the Pre-Takeoff period between 16:00Z and 16:30Z ?
I would have to modify my Inmarsat 3F1 motion model (to enable it to run before 16:30) but it's completely feasible.
Originally Posted by
Gysbreght
Where is the airplane at the time of the first ping-arc at 18:28?
The 350 kts trajectory I used is roughtly the same as the lowest speed trajectory in the interim report (see the superposition here, the 350 kts trajectory is in green. It was leading in the vincinity of the area where the pinger was supposedly detected).
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3s...it?usp=sharing
So that at 18:28 the A/C is around 300 NM and 293° from Penang.