Kooka
I am siting next to (a ferry bloke) and we are going through the numbers... again.
The Merlin can lift 4354 lbs
Ferry tank 296 USG @ 6.7lb/USG = 1802 lb
Total FOB = 6156 lb
Assuming it has -10s, at 500lb/hour = 12.31 hours endurance
How fast is a Merlin? 270 kts? 12.31 x 270 = 3324nm.
It is entirely possible that the headwinds were very strong - and it was DB's decision to go/not go - but a 50kt headwind/220kt GS still gives a flight time of 9.5 hours.
Leafie, would you mind telling us who the ferry bloke is, just for future reference ?
I admit I am out of my depth here, never touched a Merlin and have only seen one once from a distance at BK but the back of beer coaster calculations your mate is doing is a long way from reality.
I did not write the numbers down but memory tells me that the actual performance is something like 10%+ more fuel burn, a lot lower TAS due weight and height vs winds, and the winds were a bit stronger than typical at the available levels. I remember thinking at the time this should do it but it would not or not with legal and prudent margins.
Like I said, the guy flying it spent most his life flying on the water. He has even had a swim after a false shot so he probably does not want to do it again with no helo and medical team only seconds away.
You be careful out there mate, we don't want any threads featuring the Leafblower!