Anna, your NATS report link is good.
Firstly the NATS advice concludes that any new runway, will have an impact on the others within 50nm (see conclusion page 44) and that detailed analysis is necessary, especially given the many variables of traffic mix and demand location as well as runway orientation. There is no definitive position re LCy or SEN. At this stage there cannot reasonably be.
Secondly, there is a suggestion from NATS that for ITE airport that SEN & LCY will, potentially be worst affected. this is rather stating the obvious, BUT LCY is further from the ITE site (IOG) than it is from LHR.
The most potentially challenged airport is SEN. But the impact is likely to be no worse than today's LHR/northolt relationship.
I believe the report is not public yet, but I know that it will be. PM me for more info.
The biggest Challenge is runway resilience at LHR, especially in Low vis, low cloud and high wind. The mandatory reduced movement rate badly impacts LHR capacity during these events. Today the planned LHR runway occupancy is 96 percent against AMS and CDG at low sixties. Even with a new runway LHR still only gets to similar levels of resilience as at AMS now. And that's without any new traffic!
NATS has time based separation and cross border arrival flow planning soon, both designed to relieve the pressure, but this is still squeezing even more out of an airport that's runways are too full and does not change the Low vis ops problem.
Last edited by Flitefone; 9th Jul 2014 at 21:34.