Originally Posted by John Farley
Personaly I see this as a six decade programme
that started for real say in 2000.
The first decade [2000-2009]
sees the start of flying.
The second decade [2010-2019]covers most
of the original development and flying machine clearances.
The third
decade [2020-2029]sees the military really getting to grips with what
they can and cannot do with it. Plus the manufacturer is testing significant
upgrades.
The forth decade [2030-2039]it is the aircraft/system to
beat plus upgrades are starting to reach the fleet.
The fifth decade
[2040-2059]ditto and all the fleet will have reached the final
standard.
The sixth [2060-2069]is where serious plans for its
replacement have started.
That's an interesting timeline John, and not one I've seen posited before. How does this decades-long cycle marry with Moore's Law though, where computer memory is doubled every six months?
For example, just a decade after entering service the UK's Apaches began struggling with obsolescence issues on account of their basic transistor chips no longer being in production.
If the F-35 programme is spread out over 80+ years, how does it address obsolescence issues such as this. Surely, it will be obsolete and effectively unsupportable decades before it has even entered operational service, no?
It's also interesting to note that the MoD has 2048 as the JSF's OSD (just at the time that the fleet is attaining its final standard, by your timeline), so they're certainly not playing the long-game.