New report (commissioned by TfL
) just released which seeks to make the case for Boris Island, or at least for a brand-new four-runway hub.
A bit of bait-and-switch argumentation on Page 6. The argument is that a new hub is necessary to provide enough capacity for connections to the UK regions. The heading is "Why does domestic air connectivity matter?" but the discussion goes on to describe why connectivity matters in general. In other words, good connectivity via AMS (for example) would deliver most of the same benefits.
The report is trying to make the case that new UK regional services would be possible, but it looks like magical thinking to me. For example, it proposes that a new Durham Tees Valley service would be feasible, 4 times a day, with 450,000 passengers a year by 2050. Most of these would be connecting because "the London-bound market is relatively weak given the level of rail competition", but all the same, despite this 4/day 450,000 passenger hub connection, "the viability of other hub services from Durham Tees Valley is not expected to be significantly affected." Hmm. That's convenient - let's just avoid the displacement argument by assuming there is none.
Given the nice graphics and the emphasis on economic benefits for the UK regions, expect lots of news stories in the regional press in the coming days about how a brand new hub such as Boris Island is a great idea (which is undoubtedly the purpose of producing the report).