A continual intake of 80 ATC trainees per year
And we all know we'll be lucky to get 50 rated, probably closer to 40.
Being very optimistic we might cover attrition but where is the "bow wave" to allow training for the new system? Being realistic we're easily 100 short and probably plenty more over the next five years.
For some attempting to return the "corporate citizen" excuse is just short-sighted spitefulness. But for better or worse some probably burnt their bridges a little too well and have no chance.
It's really hard to see how 20 or even 50 overseas controllers hired in the next five years is doing Aussies out of jobs. Not unless AsA more than doubles the ab initio training intake and that just ain't gonna happen.
I do agree with Ferris that there is an impact on staff movements, but SDE has an impact too (no incentive for a manager to release staff to another manager) as does the general shortage.