Any new applicants should be factoring this possibility into their longer term planning.
I agree 100% and it is not just a rumour about the number of upgrades being reduced. Ask JT or CO and they'll confirm it, especially as they are directly affected.
With the balance of FOs v captains being addressed and it being much more balanced than it has been in the past, I believe we will see a new policy ('my technique') being brought into play whereby upgrades will only take place in the second contract. Assessment may well begin earlier but training etc won't.
This is just my guess but not only will it allow the FO:captain ratio to be better managed but it will also allow the Company to upgrade those who they want to keep around by upgrading in a second contract and by not extending a contract to those they don't really want around the place any more. Of course, the opposite is true and it allows an FO to do 5 years, collect his completion bonus at the end of that period and go elsewhere with the blessing of AJX (and the possibility of coming back later), without having to extend further because of left to right training etc.
All guessing aside, I would be guided by the wise words of Almostok....who clearly must be almostgood