PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - MYT shares jump almost 30% in one day.
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Old 3rd May 2003, 17:14
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Youwererobbed
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: UK
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Fingers crossed it is good news and pilots jobs are safe, but don't get carried away yet.
The only reason that some sort of financial backing is being considered is because the debt of MyTravel is so large that the banks will make more money from the debt interest payments than seeing the company go bust. The other slightly more interesting part of this is that the value of the company as a whole (basically share price X No of shares plus cash reserves) has to be greater than the sum of it's liabilities (the cost of getting holiday makers home if it goes bust) for the CAA to be able to isssue a license to operate as a tour operator. This was clearly not the case a few weeks ago and the CAA would have had no choice but to suspend MyTravels license when it came up for renewal (bet that this renewal is due in the next 6-8 months). The banks that provide the capitalisation aren't daft and will obviously artificially lift the share price to ensure that company value exceeds liabilty. That is exactly what is happening now and what will continue to happen for the next few months till license renewal.
This has coincided with broker comment that the major carriers may be at the bottom of the slump (war over, SAR possibly under control, oil price drop etc etc).
So short term, 2-3 years MyTravel will probably be OK. Long term they have no chance of survival, as soon as the amount of debt is reduced enough that the banks own debt is not effected then all support will be taken away and the company will collapse. This doesn't have to mean massive job losses, more likely a take-over from another source.
The problem for MyTravel and the supporting banks is to keep share price above liability levels for the long term.
Who in this industry can look further than 2-3 years ahead? Even BA has problems (similar vein to MT in that the banks can't afford for BA to go bust), the Low Cost are expanding much too quickly (this is the most common form of company problems) and facing stricter regulation from EC. When Easy and Ryan have to provide compensation and/or hotels for flight cancellations or delays then they will find it much tougher to compete.
So MT may not have along term future but who does at the moment...at least it's not more bad news.
The trick to survival at the moment is to owe so much money to the banks that if you go under the bank goes under. Strange world we live in.
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