Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[slats11]

Based on the evidence available, the balance of probability would surely suggest the following deliberate sequence:
1. At FIR boundary, turn off ACARS / transponder and fail to handover to Vietnam ATC.
2. Low level flight back over the Malaysian peninsula
3. Once over the Indian Ocean and beyond primary radar, climb back to normal cruise levels, and turn south. Ultimately it likely headed towards Perth while hiding in plain sight flying along airways - possibly M641 (India to Perth) or L894 (Middle East to Perth)

This sequence would achieve the following outcomes, which I believe were intended:
1. Maximal confusion with ATC at handover. A catastrophic systems failure exactly at the FIR boundary is sufficiently unlikely to permit the tentative conclusion this was a deliberate act.
2. Minimse the risk of real-time detection crossing Malaysia. The main risk was primary radar, so a low level flight was necessary to make primary radar sporadic. Any layperson accounts of a low flying aircraft (in the middle of the night after moonset) would likely be contradictory, and would not emerge until the next day anyway.
3. Subsequent climb to normal cruise levels to maximise range and allow a long flight away from Malaysia in the wrong direction.
4. A chance sighting by a ship of an early morning flight at high altitude heading in the direction of Perth would not be suspicious.
5. A controlled ditching at first light so as to minimise the risk that debris would eventually wash up somewhere. Possibly turn off airway during descent so that any floating wreckage would be less likely to be seen by aircraft later that day.

If the pinger data is now void, all we really have is the Inmarsat data.

Without the Inmarsat data (perhaps an oversight), all we would have would be a sighting by an oil rig worker in the South China Sea, a suggestion of a turn back by Vietnam ATC, few vague reports of an aircraft crossing Malaysia at low level, and a sporadic primary radar contact.

How does this scenario fit with the last few Inmarsat arcs (assuming by then a constant course and speed)?

If we are now down to a needle in a haystack, it might be worth looking near the last arc along these two airways. Even then the search area would be huge. So far the Bluefin has only searched 850 square km.

The only other way we might get lucky is if someone provides information (e.g. that mystery telephone call prior to departure), or by looking for unlikely patterns of internet searches (this was likely very carefully researched).