PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Old 28th May 2014, 16:22
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Propduffer
 
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Originally Posted by Pontis Navigator
My interpretation is that the track plot to the south east of the circle is MH370 at a medium altitude. The circle shows where the plot went dark, most likely as the aircraft dropped below the radar horizon. The continuation plot to the north west was regained as the aircraft resumed a climb.
I don't know what the circle represents, but we can see the 'MH370' track before and after the circle on a (gustimated) 295 degree heading. So the circle isn't where the track was lost. If you look closely at the MH370 track you'll see a series of dots that presumably indicate the sweeps of a search radar.

Using the circle for reference, look inside the circle and you will see two solid lines which I take to indicate airways. On the upper of these two airways there can be seen a series of dots which I also take to be representations of radar sweeps. These dots paint a much more symmetrical pattern than does the 'MH370 track.

I will add that these radar tracks provide no altitude information.
And I agree that this is a doctored composite.
Originally Posted by Pontis Navigator
Now I am not in to conspiracy theory, evasive routing etc, but that loss of contact could also have put the aircraft in the dark to Indonesian radar as well. Having gone out of cover why climb while within range of the PSR? One possibility is that going dark would throw off short range interceptors reliant on close radar control.
I do see strong evidence for evasive routing:
There are multiple indications that the flight descended sharply and passed over the Malaysian landmass at lower altitude than cruise. (Radar reports from the Malaysians and sightings of a plane descending on a westerly course near Kota Bharu, 'intermittant' Thai radar contact.) I believe that a blind spot in the Thai radar at Hat Yai was exploited to reduce exposure to Thai radar (this is borne out by Thai statements that their track was "intermittent" which it would not have been the case if the flight was at cruise altitude.)

I believe that subterfuge was used to decieve the Indonesian's monitoring their ATC and primary radar - from an Aceh view, the flight would have appeared along a frequently used airway which is used by flights from Penang to Australia. These airways avoid Indonesian national waters (beyond 12 miles.)

It's quite a coincidence that the flight flew a part that would mimic a skilled military spyflight's intended course to avoid detection from IGARI to the Indian ocean. Too big a coincidence for me to ignore.
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