In the latest news statement on Rivet Joint MoD's Chief of Materiel (Air), Air Marshal Simon Bollom states "We have procured an aircraft with a proven track record". Now let us see what H-C stated after reviewing the Nimrod safety case;
Reliance on past data cannot be considered a substitute for critical hazard analysis as to the risk of a catastrophic event in the future. In simple terms, whilst an incident database may tell you what has happened in the past, it does not tell you what might, or could, happen in the future. It should be remembered that the day before Piper Alpha disaster itself in 1988, and the Challenger in 1986, the platforms involved were 'safe' based on an analysis of past incidents alone. [And Nimrod XV230 was considered 'safe' on the morning of 2nd Sept 2006 --- My addition]
You have to prove a platform is safe by producing a valid safety case. This means developing a properly structured Hazard Log, which looks at what could happen. Several people, including two very senior officers, were "crucified" in the H-C review for not doing this. By releasing Rivet Joint for operational use MoD/MAA has learned nothing from H-C and the loss of Nimrod XV230.
DV