Sorry Bastardeux my frustration at the repeated "no aircraft" line was getting the better of me. In circs where current plans (including the 48) already take us down to 7 sqns of FJ I'd still be genuinely surprised - and very worried - if the commitment to 48 didn't hold good.
In practice I certainly don't expect to see 24 embarked very often at all, but in some ways for UK diplomacy purposes the possibility of a surge to 24 - even if only demonstrated very occasionally - would probably suffice, and 48 airframes would just about permit that.
I'd concede though that building up to 48 and being able to generate 24 for ops isn't something we'll see near term, and 10 years is a long time in politics. Hey ho. I'll do my best to hang on to what little optimism I have left for the time being.