CG,
It's a great theory .. and perhaps even true .. but ..
They can't wrap it up by June 30 .. they have to give 3 months notice so even saying that their asking for expressions of interest is "the notice" ... Mid August is the earliest ...
The other point is that if they were to do that, then they would be left .. er.. short, very very short on both types ..
I'd say there will be several "blocks" of VR as they reduce the numbers of aircraft.
N
(and another point for those considering VR .. the tax situation is HUGELY different Jun 30 v Jul 1)