I attended a training conference at Embry Riddle in March where compliance with the new US ATP requirements were discussed. The panels were mostly US Aviation Colleges, and their questions centered around the FAA paperwork required to certify the reduced hourly requirements for the new restricted ATP.
It was interesting to note the caliber of some of the others at the conference. Boeing, Airbus, Embarer. United, Delta, American Eagle and some other regional airlines were also present. The consensus at the regional airlines is that they cannot fill their new hire classes. The new 1500 hour ATP rule is to blame. The major Carriers and manufacturers are watching this very closely. The Airbus representative stated that Airbus was not going to allow a pilot shortage to affect sales.
The consensus of this body was that the US needs a MCL program and they need it as soon as possible. On April 25, Brian Bedford, CEO of Republic Airways, went before an Aviation Subcommittee of the US Congress and testified that the new ATP requirements are a terrible idea and should be scrapped and he argued that new hire regional airline pay had nothing to do with the pilot shortage.
In February of 2014 the US Federal GAO or General Accounting Office published a 61 page report on the Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots. The report concluded that there was not pilot shortage but there were a shortage of pilots willing to work at the wages and conditions being provided by regional airlines.
If you consider the added costs that a candidate might encounter if he has to pay for advanced simulator training to gain even the reduced competence required to gain an MPL then I don't see much benefit to the MPL as a money saving plan for the airlines.
Even for those youngsters with visions of shiny jets in their eyes the staggering costs, and the added little kicker of the inability of those holding student loan debt to re-finance or discharge that debt in Chapter 11, and this is another story entirely, is a major obstacle. Why would any one take on that burden for a job that will not pay enough to pay off the loan?
I believe in the free market. A pricing signal is the primary means by which the market tells you that there is too much or too little of something. If there is scarcity the price rises. If there is abundance the price is likely to fall. The regional airline industry doesn't like to admit it and they want to cloud the issue but if they want more pilots they simply need to pay more. Structure the pay such that a new hire can pay off his training debt and they will have enough candidates.
Here endith the lesson.