absolutely if forward bookings aren't there
compared to previous years, much easier to cancel now than later. Look at FJ's market. Apart from Asia (they do 3 NAN/HKG's a week with 332's) then what's left Australia/NZ/USA.
I can't support it with figures but would guess that Australia would be by far their biggest market.
Cutting NAN/LAX/NAN flights at busiest time of the year, suggests that Australians might be going to Fiji, but not to USA via Fiji as much as previously (these extra flights were introduced in Dec13, when 2 x 458 seat 744's had gone & been replace by 3 x 332's (273 seats approx.).
From some time in Oct this year, UA will go from 2 x 744's a day ex Australia (MEL/SYD/LAX + SYD/SFO) to daily 2 x 777's SYD/LAX, SYD/SFO + MEL/LAX on a 787. Not sure of total seats but must be around the same.
UA have a terrible name in the travel industry in Australia, but UA might pick up some MEL/LAX nonstop traffic off QF & VA, when people find out they can fly on a brand new 787.
Budget on Tuesday will stop a lot of people doing a long haul holiday & instead many will bunker down, put any spare cash on the mortgage & long haul airlines will suffer.
Maybe it might be good for some areas. Eg. instead of going to USA or Europe, they might go to Gold Coast or NZL. Hopefully, there won't be too many who completely cancel their travel plans altogether.