I posted this elsewhere on pprune a short while ago, and whilst I don't want to become a bore on the issue, it does apply to so many of the threads currently running on here that are discussing UK armed forces:
I don't want to turn this into another "Scottish Independence" thread (although I can see that happening.... ), neither is this supposed to be a comment about whether Scotland should/could become an independent country. Rather it supposed to be a comment about the effect on the rest of the UKs military forces if the result is "yes". I don't think many people on PPRuNe have fully realized the implications for a "yes" vote to the remainder of the UKs armed forces.
Quite simply, if the result is a "yes" it will drive a coach and horses through all pre-planned defence expenditure for the next 5-10 years as a minimum. MOD will have to absorb the costs of moving a variety of assets around, just a few examples of which include finding a new home for the SSBN fleet, indeed all the submarine fleet, perhaps beefing up Leeming as a northern QRA airfield, closing or reducing bases, moving manpower, etc. Given that the UK governments income will shrink by about 9% then the defence budget may face a 9% cut. Will all Scots currently serving be offered the chance for a "free" transfer to the Scottish defence forces, will there be compulsory redundancies as the MODs manpower requirement shrinks due to a loss of assets, etc, etc...... The mess that will require untangling just goes on and on.
West Germany funded the costs of reunification with East Germany, but the whole of the UK will fund much of the costs of the creation of an independent Scotland, if only because many of the costs will have to be met before the official independence day when Scotland goes solo.
And how likely is this scenario, well the latest polls show the two sides almost neck and neck, and the vote is only a few months away. It stands a pretty good chance of becoming reality. It is the elephant in the room, or people simply don't appreciate the impact it will have.
Discussions on buying an MPA/MMA, keeping Sentinel, how many F-35s we buy, post Afghanistan reductions, SDSR 15/16, all pale into insignificance in comparison to the result of the referendum in just 5 months time. If the answer is "yes" it will probably have the biggest impact on UK, across the whole spectrum of affairs (a UK parliamentary election in 2015 where 60 odd MPs will disappear just a year later in 2016, with a possible change/fall of government as a result being just one example), since world war 2.
As I said in the above text, I don't think many people south of the border have appreciated the impact a "yes" vote will have across the whole of the UK, and that certainly includes the UK military.