Think you're right about the critical mass aspect, CM. That seems to be the killer of so many potentially better paths.
My story is much like some of the others here. Was an AOPA member for many years. Bailed during the egos era. Supported other organizations thereafter and haven't seen the particular value of getting back to AOPA. Admire the incremental change like the faster medicals but, like LS, the exclusions work against me so it's either my current Class 2 or the RA Aus driver's licence.
I'd like to think that RA Aus had a shot at long-term success but the critical mass issue surfaces again: the CASA RPL licence will almost certainly fragment the recreational community, making RA Aus even less viable than it now is.
Having been a volunteer in several organizations, I have great respect for people who give their time and effort to AOPA. But I just don't see the organization being particularly relevant and, for my particular branch of recreational aviation, I'll chart the same long-term path as Poteroo, trepidation notwithstanding.
I do agree, it'd be great to realize the dream of one Australian GA organization, encompassing all recreational and sports flying. With critical mass such an issue, it's surely the goal.