Lon haul
The hard landing of the TOM Boeing 767 occurred in October 2010 and the AAIB report into that incident that commented on the high number of such landings on 09 with that type of aircraft was published in 2012. If TOM had decided to stop using this aircraft at BRS as a result of the AAIB report would they not have done so at least from 2013, or even the year after the incident (2011)? So far as I'm aware the occasional B 767 still operates winter cruise flights to the West Indies.
There should be some pointer later this week to the way Thomson is thinking about long haul from the region, meaning West Country/South Wales, when its summer 2015 programme is due to be published. It might be a straight toss up between BRS and CWL or Thomson might decide that other airports such as LGW and BHX can meet the demand from the Severnside area as well as from further west in both Wales and England. That's certainly the case this summer.
I don't agree entirely that BRS is the only viable option for long haul from Severnside, at least for holiday charter flights. CWL has shown itself in the past to be capable of generating high loads to Florida and to the Caribbean. It was presumably the respective yields that saw TOM preferring BRS to CWL for the summer transatlantic charters a few years ago, when CWL had been the main Severnside airport for this type of traffic for many years before that with a number of carriers and holiday companies.
CWL has also seen more Caribbean cruise flights in recent winters. That does seem an oddity considering that BRS has a large reservoir of the type of punter that one normally associates with such holidays but it is a fact.
So far as wide-bodied scheduled long haul to the Middle East is concerned the cargo issue is certainly a pertinent one, assuming the 787/350 could use the runway.
If one of the MEB3 decided on CWL it might be a leap of faith to a degree because such a service would undoubtedly need a significant degree of support from outside Wales - ie from England - and West Country travellers (the obvious main source of potential support) already have the choice of BHX and particularly LHR, and the majority have looked for many years and continue to look no further than the M 4 eastwards for their long haul. There would also be the likelihood of diluting BHX to some degree if EK was the airline involved at either BRS or CWL.
If BRS was the choice it would almost certainly need less support from Wales than the other way around as its core catchment is larger and generally wealthier but, as is the case with the current network as a whole, around 50% of passenger numbers begin or end their journey beyond the Greater Bristol area.
The clincher might be APD being devolved to the Wales Government and being reduced to a zero rate, which would then make CWL look far more attractive for flights such as those to the Midddle East if England remained saddled with the high rates imposed by the Westminster Government.
I remain convinced that a Turkish Airlines link via Istanbul with smaller aircraft is BRS's best bet for a way into the major economies of the Far East.
Every time we discuss BRS's future we come back to the poor decision to locate the airport on Broadfield Down all those years ago. Had Filton been chosen (and I accept from what we were told here a few days ago that the BAC didn't want an airport on their airfield in 1957) none of these ifs and buts would enter the equation now, although South Gloucestershire nimbys would be replacing North Somerset nimbys.