Long Haul
I can't envisage any new LH starting. Maybe if we had another 1000ft of runway to play with,
That's (sort of) my point - there's not a feasible airport for LH, with a hope of any reasonable PAX nos, west of LHR and south of BHX. CWL / BOH / EXT might have the runway but not a lot else.
My back of a fag packet calculation is maybe south west region 5.5m, southern wales ?1.2m and other fringe areas (nearer to BRS than anywhere else) say 1m, total 7.7m potential LH PAX and what do they do - all go to LHR and guess what they need another runway (or Boris Island) to handle it all.
Maybe the runway issue length should be revisited NIMBYs and all!