DB
For what it is worth, on the balance of probabilities I believe it was inadvertent IMC leading to CFIT. However I do not believe they simply forgot where the Mull was, blundered into a cloud and hit the hill.
You use the term "balance of probabilities", which is of course a fairly low standard of proof. Particularly so when the evidence is thin, and the individuals concerned are denied the right of reply.
Just interested to know what you think the probability is? Clearly more than 50/50? So 60/40? 80/20? 90/10? How do you make that assessment?
What enables you to dismiss the probability of other possibilities?
Of what value is such an 'intuitive' (rather than factual) determination to Flight Safety?
Thanks