To answer your question to me. The reason why it increases the likelyhood of a dead pilot is because the terrorist knows you may well have a gun in the cockpit therefore he will have to act much more quickly to incapacitate you. Previously he could just threaten you with a knife. Now the stakes have been raised. He knows he must get you before you get him.
I still don't believe that arming pilots will increase the chance of dying.
The stakes were raised on 9/11. "The Common Strategy" (placate the terrorist
) concept is what allowed the bad guys to get the upper hand. They knew what the flight crew would do and they played to those weaknesses.
Since 9/11, the bad guys have to assume that the pilots will resist a takeover attempt at all costs, whether they are armed or not, and will try to eliminate the pilots as quickly as possible. IMHO, the likelihood of a dead pilot is greater if the pilot is unarmed, since at this point, he will (or at least should) be resisting the bad guys. Having a weapon will give the pilot the edge. The baddies also know that there are future new hires in F-Teens waiting for the hijack code if they do actually get control of the aircraft. Again, whether the pilots are armed or not, they will try to eliminate them as quickly as possible to achieve their goal.
Furthermore not all pilots or cockpits will carry guns. However the terrorist has to assume that there is one in the cockpit, as there is now the possibility of there being one. Therefore the terrorist will now be much more aggressive in his approach, with little chance of the pilots defending themselves, even when no gun is actually present.
As I said before, the terrorist has to assume that the pilots will resist either way, and will act accordingly.
The days of "Take me to Habana" are over..........