PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
View Single Post
Old 31st Mar 2014, 14:22
  #8818 (permalink)  
awblain
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Pasadena
Posts: 633
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Lonewolf,

It's been about 550 hours since the disappearance. How accurate a tracked-back position is even a large number of drifting fragments now going to provide realistically?

To try to be positive, currents have been traced by buoys; however, each floating object will interact with wind and waves in a different way, and it's quite possible that debris has travelled over 1000 miles from where it went into the sea.

Given the uncertainty in the crash location is currently a box that is up to 500 x 2000 miles in extent, I agree with you that almost any more information would be better than nothing, and if it's providing useful training for the crews doing the search, and no searchers get hurt, then it's probably harmless; however, it seems to me to be reaching the point that potential returns from finding flotsam using anything other than a beach are diminishing.

Again, to try to be positive, the discovery of a sure-fire-from-MH370 item out in the ocean would provide a firm limit to the easternmost position of the crash, and given that the uncertainty about range beyond the 0811 satellite contact also remains large, it would still probably constrain the N-S position, but it's not getting any more accurate with time.

Is there anything else to do? I suspect that looking hard for a contrail using stacked weather satellite data after dawn as the flight neared its end might be a way to go at this stage, because at some point, criss-crossing the ocean looking for surface debris is definitely going to stop being useful.
awblain is offline