If a third runway was built at Heathrow (the only realistic option), then Gatwick would become pretty empty. I suspect Easyjet would have no problem leaving Gatwick if there was space at Heathrow.
One runway and two terminals is ample for Gatwick.
Would be very surprised if U2 left LGW in the event of an expanded LHR. Would expect U2 to start LHR ops as it is chasing business customers, perhaps by providing competition on domestic and near abroad trunk routes.
Do not see U2 quitting LGW where it is "number one". Under those circumstances, could see U2 quitting STN and/or LTN in the long term.
However, I think there is still too much concentration on stealing business from Heathrow (Long Haul), without carving out a niche which is specific to Gatwick.
Yes, it's pie in the sky. No carrier will leave LHR for LGW, some do LHR
and LGW. The movement, where there is movement, is always from LGW to LHR. Always has been, always will be.
I thought Flybe was an important part of Gatwick's business model and I really had to "double take" when I read of the entire "fees" saga, forcing the airline out. I think the board at Gatwick need to work to keep airlines, even those operating turboprops.
Yes, it was shocking and disgraceful but, apparently, that's business. Think it was a mistake which may rebound in the medium to long term.