It is a certainty that for around the last 8-12mths 80-95% of new hires in NAS have been ex FR.
That must equate to 300+ to NAS alone.
I have heard that Emirates is similarly well disposed towards ex FR candidates, so I can well imagine that at least 500 have fled the Harp in the last 12mths.
Given that the 5/4 roster was the only selling point, and given the devaluation of that now that everyone is in reality a "floater" so therefore likely to easily lose 1-2 days commuting, why would you stay ? what is there to like anymore ?
As we used to trumpet back in the REPA days, this is all about R E S P E C T , this is unlikely to be forthcoming anytime soon, so you have to look elsewhere if you want it. Twas always thus, but roster stability & the "fools gold" of signing up as a "contractor" compensated, none of these carrots now exist in reality, so, the exodus will continue.
Heard strong rumours of Fly Dubai airframes being wet leased for Summer.
Historically any anticipated shortage has always been avoided at the last moment by someone else going bust. . . perhaps opening bases in BRU/FCO could have been partially motivated by the hope that one of the incumbent carriers might be helped "over the edge" thereby freeing up a few local drivers.