The main priority for China today is not Taiwan, Japan or any other islands. The main problem China has is three quarters of a billion people looking at TV sets showing the spendours of the new China and asking,
Where is my share?
Any physical aggression will almost immediately close down their export markets to the United States and Europe. Forget about how many dollars China holds, that will be rearranged. What will happen is that over 100 million migrant workers will be out of a job hundreds of miles from home. One just has to see what the Chinese are like when they are uncertain where their relatives are to know what the reaction would be.
It will continue building up its armed forces and contrary to the UK improve the T&Cs to retain them. It is still a conscript force. There is a cadre of regulars who are prepared to make decisions much in the same way as Western forces but most just flow the party line and keep out of trouble.
The Nationaist have several small islands. the Matsu, off Xiamin which are well within artillery range but they haven't been shelled for decades.
There are a lot of thinkers in China at all levels. The days when the party could motivate the masses to make a political point have gone. One billion mobile phones took care of that.
The Continental Shelf off China is awash with gas and oil. I know, I flew with it for fifteen years. The whole point of the discussions is the control of these resources. China has the advantage of three thousand years of recorded history so it can claim anywhere in the Far East on the basis of ancient writings but using this as a reason for taking possession would not be tolerated in the modern world.
It will keep blustering along. It will keep pressing its claims and there will be more diplomatic incidents but the territory will be of no use to anybody if you cannot get underneath. China is not self-sufficoent in oil but at the moment is has as much as its own oil industry can handle.
Last edited by Fareastdriver; 27th Mar 2014 at 17:14.