Originally Posted by
onetrack
Does anyone else get the distinct impression, that after several days of the most intensive air and sea search effort since AF447, in which virtually nothing of real interest has been found - apart from pallets that could have come from anywhere, plus a few indistinct satellite pics that have failed to produce anything of value - that they're most definitely looking in the wrong area?
It's starting to appear obvious that the aircraft either went quite a bit further than estimated (lower fuel burn due to reduced power settings? - plus quite a few miles of glide after flameout?) - or it dropped into the ocean quite a bit earlier than the current search zone, and the current search zone needs to be re-assessed?
I've been getting this same impression for a couple of days. Yes, I think they are looking in the wrong area. However, it is far from obvious where the "right" area could be.
The area they are looking in is pretty strongly restricted by two "statements". Statement 1: according to Inmarsat, the aircraft was still in the air at the 40 degree arc 7.5 hours into the flight. Statement 2: Australians have a powerful over-the-horizon radar system that can track aircraft as far as 1000 NM west of its west coast, and may or may not reach much further.
Unfortunately, Australians are refusing to say whether they saw MH370 on their radars. Logic would dictate that either (a) they did not and they are looking for it in the area beyond the range of their radars, or (b) they did and it went down roughly in the area where they are looking. If it's (b), then we're wrong and they are right and sooner or later they'll find it there. If it's (a), things are more interesting.
Your proposed options don't really work. It could not go much further or drop much sooner along the same heading, if both statements above are true.
Furthermore, "Statement 1" is the only reason anyone is even looking in the south Indian Ocean. If we reject it in whole or in parts, MH370 can be anywhere - it could be on an abandoned landing strip in Somalia, it could be on the bottom of the Bay of Bengal, etc. etc., but south Indian Ocean would be very far down anyone's list of places to look for it.
If we accept "Statement 1" but also assume that MH370 is NOT in south Indian Ocean (due to the spectacular failure to find any trace of it there), it has to be along the northern arc. (And, since much of the northern arc is in mainland China and you'd expect the Chinese, of all people, to be 110% sure that it never got into their country, that limits options to Central Asia and Burma.)