Found this quite useful.
Re the graphic Flash8 posted with the red arcs and various possible flight paths shown -
While the area of highest probability to the south is logical, I feel the one in the north should be further back along the upper arc to the southeast. If the aircraft went north, it most likely did it via a convoluted route that avoided radar and may have been at low altitude. That would take additional time and spend additional fuel - meaning they wouldn't have gotten as far, correct?